White Christmas? These are the chances in your city in 2025!

White Christmas? These are the chances in your city in 2025!

The Christmas season is just around the corner and, like every year, many people are wondering whether the holidays will be awash in white splendor. A look at the weather forecasts for this festive period shows that the possibilities for a blanket of snow in Germany vary greatly from region to region. Especially in cities like Cologne, the prospects of a white Christmas are rather slim.

In Cologne, the probability of snow on the Christmas holidays is between 5 and 15 percent, as Chiemgau24 reported. Most years, December 24th in the cathedral city is grey, wet or mild. The picture becomes even clearer when you look at the situation in other regions of Germany. While cities like Cologne have little luck with snow-covered holidays, the chance on the Baltic Sea coast around Rostock is already around 20 percent. In Alpine regions, however, such as on the Zugspitze, you can almost certainly expect a solid snow cover.

Climate change and its effects

One of the causes of this decline in the likelihood of a white Christmas is climate change. An analysis by the German Weather Service (DWD) shows that white Christmases have become less common in recent decades. Historically, white Christmases in the lowlands were twice as common in the 1960s to 1980s as they are today. In addition to the milder weather around the holidays, there are also frequent episodes of thaw that cause snow to melt.

The connection between climate change and the declining frequency of white Christmas is undeniable. A DWD expert explains that cold air from the north is often dry and does not bring snow, while mild, moist air from the west often cannot bring snow either. It remains to be seen how winter will develop in the coming years, as forecasts expect warming of three to four degrees by the end of the 21st century.

Current trends and data

The last nationwide white Christmas in Germany was in 2010. Since then, places like Cologne and Frankfurt have been confronted with gray and wet holidays. According to Tagesschau, in recent years it has happened that even the higher low mountain ranges only have occasional snow and, for example, did not experience a white Christmas in 2022. The situation is no different in the eastern federal states: There was no snow in many regions on the morning of December 24th.

Despite the gloomy outlook for the upcoming Christmas, it doesn't mean that it could never snow again on these days. In the higher altitudes of the low mountain ranges and in the Alps, the chances are still there, even if they are literally in the snow in the lower regions such as Cologne.

All in all, it remains to be seen whether this year's Christmas magic can wear a snow-white dress or whether we have to get used to the typical mild weather again. The hope for a snowy holiday remains, even if the likelihood is increasingly dwindling.