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Iran shows willingness for ceasefire: will the conflict with Israel end?
Iran signals ceasefire with Israel as Trump announces ceasefire. Analysis of possible conflict scenarios.
Iran shows willingness for ceasefire: will the conflict with Israel end?
In a surprising turning point in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed on Platform This reports Radio Cologne. According to Araghchi, Iran plans to halt military operations if Israel ends its "illegal aggression" by 4:00 a.m. Tehran time (02:30 CEST). However, it remains unclear whether a formal ceasefire agreement actually exists, as Araghchi emphasized that no such agreements currently exist.
The situation is further complicated by US President Donald Trump's announced ceasefire. Trump announced that the ceasefire would take effect gradually over 24 hours, starting with a 12-hour ceasefire for Iran, followed by another for Israel. However, there is no confirmation of this agreement from either camp, which increases uncertainty in the region ZDF reported.
The war and its background
The conflict, which began 12 days ago, was sparked by Israeli attacks on Iran aimed at stopping Tehran's nuclear program. These attacks culminated in further military action, including the recent bombings in Tehran. Trump described the proposed ceasefire as an “official end” to the war, but this was met with skepticism as the Israeli side has not yet responded to the announcements.
Additionally, US Vice President J.D. Vance revealed that US attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities severely damaged the nuclear weapons production infrastructure. In parallel with these military clashes, Iran carried out a limited retaliatory strike against an American air base in Qatar, with no injuries reported. Qatar, which has close ties with both Iran and the United States, helped broker the ceasefire.
What could happen next?
Experts warn that the conflict could escalate in various directions. According to an article by SRF There are three main scenarios under discussion:
- Iran verhält sich wie die Hisbollah: Der Iran könnte versuchen, seine militärischen Reaktionen zu begrenzen, um das Gesicht zu wahren.
- Erhöhter Druck des Westens: Israel könnte seine Angriffe intensivieren, während die USA diplomatische Maßnahmen und Sanktionen gegen den Iran anstreben.
- Unkontrollierte Eskalation: Ein militärisches Eingreifen der USA im Verbund mit Israel könnte zu einer regionalen Krise führen.
All three scenarios involve immense risks. In particular, an unwanted escalation could be at stake, although experts believe that a conflagration can be considered unlikely given that the Iranian regime's retention of power is a priority.
In the meantime, it remains to be seen whether the announced ceasefire will actually be implemented and how the situation in the Middle East will develop. The pressure on everyone involved to achieve sustainable peace is increasing.